Golf: Crash Course

Brady Kannon's preview and selections for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, this week's PGA Tour event:

It feels good to get a break for a minute from the “major” events that have dominated the PGA Tour schedule for the last six weeks. It’s on to a good old-fashioned birdie-fest deep in the heart of Texas, as for the sixth year in a row the CJ Cup Byron Nelson will be held at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

I like to call these next three weeks “The Legendary Swing,” as we go from the Byron Nelson to Ben Hogan’s place, Colonial Country Club, next week in Fort Worth, only to be followed by the Memorial at Jack Nicklaus’ place in Dublin, Ohio. It’s a great lead up to the season’s third major, the U.S. Open, which will be held at Shinnecock Hills in New York. Scottie Scheffler will be looking to complete the career grand slam at Shinnecock — but first, he’ll be looking to defend his title here at Lord Byron’s place.

Scheffler went “Star Trek” last season, boldly going where no man has gone before, getting to 31-under par and winning by eight shots. Reinforcements were immediately called in to investigate, and with the help of Lanny Wadkins, the golf course was tweaked in an effort to make things a bit more challenging.

In the 2026 edition, we will get a par 71 that measures just a shade less than 7,400 yards. Tom Weiskopf originally designed the property in 2004 but Wadkins has since narrowed the fairways, moved some of the bunkering, and renovated many of the greens — again, to try to adjust things to challenge the modern Tour player while still keeping this golf course playable for the club membership. In the five times that Craig Ranch has hosted this tournament, the average winning score is 25.5 under par. At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, the Over/Under winning score proposition bet is 260.5, meaning 23.5 under par.

Even with the changes to the golf course, my approach to the handicap hasn’t changed. The formula remains the same: efficiency off the tee, greens in regulation, hole putts for birdie. Even though there have been some changes to these Bentgrass greens, I still believe that this will ultimately become a putting contest. Accordingly, I have looked at Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdies or Better Gained, Par 5 Scoring, Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards, and Par 4 Scoring on those measuring 450-500 yards.

I believe the correlated courses are fairly strong this week. In these watered-down field events, we tend to see the same names surface on the leaderboard. I looked at two other Weiskopf designs we see on Tour, TPC Scottsdale and Black Desert Resort in Utah. I also looked at Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational), Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open), and El Cardonal at Diamante (World Wide Technologies Championship).

I’m going with the long-shot approach this week. Scheffler is a prohibitive favorite at around +185. Si Woo Kim and Jordan Spieth are the second choices at around 15-1. Brooks Koepka checks in around 25-1 and after that, there isn’t anything shorter than 40 or 50-1 — and that is where I will get started.

FULL STORY WITH SELECTIONS

RBROWNBETS.COM: We're not wagering on any of Wednesday's action, but we do have a futures ticket on the Colordo Avalance to win the Stanley Cup. Colorado and Las Vegas open their best-of-seven series Wednesday night. If you like The Avalance in the series against the Golden Knights, you may want to join me and bet Colorado to win the Cup instead, assuming you think the Avalanche can take care of business against the Eastern Conference champion. Colorado is -260 to defeat Las Vegas and win the Western Conference, but you can still get the Avalanche at +130 to win the Stanley Cup. That might be a better investment. Best of luck with your bets ...

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