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129 days ago

Draft Thoughts

Haven't found anything of interest regarding the NFL Draft, especially since what the Sportsbooks offer has shrunk significantly in recent years. The following are some NFL Draft wagers that VSIN's Matt Youmans likes, as well as his complete Mock Draft:

Quarterbacks drafted in the first round: Over 1.5 (-215, -185 and -160) My first of three bets on this prop was made at DraftKings more than a month ago, after ESPN reporter Adam Schefter said he was confident Simpson would be a first-round pick. The bet at -215 turned out to be at a bad number because the market price peaked at -270 before falling all the way to -130 about a week ago. There are reasonable doubts about how many teams are actually competing to pursue Simpson. The Browns, Jets and Steelers need a quarterback, but those teams seem highly unlikely to pick Simpson early. The Cardinals and Rams are the primary candidates in the Simpson chase, but each team would need to make a trade to make it happen. Respected draft analysts Todd McShay and Tony Pauline recently made strong comments in support of Simpson going in the first.

Ty Simpson drafted by the Cardinals (+130) This bet was made a few weeks ago and it’s now a good number, considering DraftKings currently has Arizona priced at -200 to pick Simpson. The Cardinals have a weak QB depth chart topped by Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew, so they desperately need a franchise guy and new coach Mike LaFleur reportedly has an affinity for Simpson. Arizona is expected to be dealing and might move up from the second pick of the second round. Rams coach Sean McVay, in need of a backup to Matthew Stafford to groom as the future starter, also reportedly wants Simpson, but that’s probably not happening at No. 13.

Wide receivers drafted in the first round: Under 5.5 (+125) At least four receivers will get called in the first round, with Ohio State’s Carnell Tate and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson being the first two. USC’s Makai Lemon and Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion are likely to follow. The other two who might go are Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. and Washington’s Denzel Boston, but I’m betting one of those players slips to the second round.

Steelers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+160) Aaron Rodgers’ future is up in the air again, and the hiring of coach Mike McCarthy was a dubious decision. If Rodgers doesn’t return, McCarthy should focus on developing second-year quarterback Will Howard. Either way, Pittsburgh’s priority is to build a better line.

Chargers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+155) Injuries to bookend tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater caused the Chargers’ line to fall apart in front of quarterback Justin Herbert last season, and coach Jim Harbaugh’s focus should be to strengthen the interior both to improve the running attack and protect Herbert.

Bills position of first drafted player: Linebacker (+750) Buffalo does not have many needs, but linebacker is one and there could be two good options late in the first round with Georgia’s CJ Allen and Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez.

49ers position of first drafted player: Offensive lineman (+100) This prop is priced at even money for good reason. In a draft full of strong offensive line prospects, San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will be looking to start up front.

Seahawks position of first drafted player: Cornerback (+150) The Super Bowl champs lost running back Kenneth Walker to Kansas City, but that void can be addressed later. The most pressing need is a corner.

Matt Youmans’ NFL Mock Draft

  1. Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
  2. Jets: Arvell Reese, OLB, Ohio State
  3. Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
  4. Titans: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
  5. Giants: David Bailey, DE, Texas Tech
  6. Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
  7. Commanders: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
  8. Saints: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
  9. Chiefs: Rueben Bain, DE, Miami
  10. Giants: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
  11. Dolphins: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
  12. Cowboys: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
  13. Rams: Makai Lemon, WR, USC
  14. Ravens: Spencer Fano, OL, Utah
  15. Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
  16. Jets: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
  17. Lions: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
  18. Vikings: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
  19. Panthers: Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
  20. Cowboys: Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami
  21. Steelers: Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State
  22. Chargers: Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&M
  23. Eagles: Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
  24. Browns: Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
  25. Cardinals (trade with Bears): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
  26. Bills: CJ Allen, LB, Georgia
  27. 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah
  28. Texans: Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
  29. Chiefs: Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
  30. Dolphins: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
  31. Patriots: Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
  32. Seahawks: Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

RBROWNBETS.COM: Well, money went into the trash Tuesday night by showing confidence in the Red Sox. Connelly Early put forth a good effort on the mound, but this Boston team has no answers at the plate. The 4-0 loss to the Yankees was the fifth time this season Boston has been limited to four hits or fewer in a game. The Red Sox are 0-13 when they trail after six innings. There will be few, if any, best on Boston the rest of this year. ... Two NHL bets today: The Penguins look like a confused team against the Flyers' defense-first approach. We'll take Philadelphia at home (-120) to defeat Pittsburgh and go up 3-0 in the series. We'll also back Dallas (+110) to defeat Minnesota on the road to take a 2-1 lead in that series. ... One note for horse racing fans. Draftkings has done away with it's DK Horse app. Now you can make all of your racing best through DKSportsbook, and you do not need a separate wagering account. Best of luck today.


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