Early Day

Some advice on how to manage your sports betting bankroll via Betsperts:

The first step is determining how much money you want to have in your bankroll. This depends on your financial status. But generally, only set aside money that you can afford to lose. It sounds like a negative approach, but you should prepare for the worst just in case. It would be a massive mistake to dump most of your yearly salary into your sports betting bankroll.

What type of bettor are you? Start by determining what kind of bettor you are. This will help you in setting a unit size or the amount for each bet. The general rule is that if you’re a:

Conservative bettor: You don’t want to take too big of a risk. Therefore, each bet amount should be 1-2% of the bankroll size. This is the safest of the three options. Average bettor: You can handle a higher risk. Each bet should be around 3% of your bankroll. Aggressive bet: You don’t mind risking a lot. Therefore, each bet should be 4% to 5% of your bankroll. Understanding units You also want to understand the concept of units. These are used to compare the betting results of one bettor with those of another, regardless of the size of the bankroll.

For instance, if you set your unit size to $100 and you’re up $500, that means you’re up five units. You’ll see sports bettors on popular sites and social media talking about how many units they are up for the year. This way they can keep the amount they are wagering private and still be able to show others how well they are doing for the year.

Proper Bankroll Management Strategies There are various strategies you can use for managing your betting bankroll. These include:

Flat betting model This is a relatively simple strategy and a common approach to help you manage your bankroll. You set your unit size and then wager or try to win exactly one unit for every bet you make regardless of the odds, how confident you feel about the bet or your recent betting form. There are two ways to go about it:

To win: Here, you wager additional units needed to cover the vig. This ensures that you can potentially win one unit for the bet. For instance, if you have a unit size of 100 and are betting the standard -110 wager, you’ll risk $110 (1.1 units), so you can win $100 (1 unit). Risk: In the risk method, you don’t wager additional units to cover the vig. So, you’ll always be risking 1 unit. Using the same example, you wager $100 (1 unit) to win $91 (0.91) units. This method ensures profitability if you pick winners at a higher rate than the break-even point (52.5%). Let’s say you place four spread bets at a sportsbook. All of the odds are -110 and you place a $100 bet on each.

You go 2-2. If you check your calculator, you’re actually down $18 despite going 2-2 because the odds were -110 and you were betting the same amount each time.

So a win percentage of 50% is not going to get you to break even. That’s another reason why it’s important to understand your exact winning percentage to be profitable. Just another factor to consider so you don’t end up with poor bankroll management.

Percentage model The percentage model is quite similar to the flat betting model. This time, however, you’re wagering a specific percentage of your bankroll for each wager. Therefore, your unit size isn’t fixed.

Instead, it changes depending on the size of your bankroll. Let’s say you start with a bankroll of $1000 and set 3% as your standard unit. This means your first unit will be $30. If you win $50 from your bet, you now have a bankroll worth $1,050. Therefore, your next bet will be $31.5.

This model allows you to capitalize on a winning streak. The more bets in a row you win, the bigger your bankroll, bets, and potential winning. On the flip side, this becomes a disadvantage during a losing streak since the size of your wagers is going to decrease.

Confidence model The confidence model adds a bit of flexibility to the flat model. You have a standard 1.0 unit wager. However, you are allowed to increase your bet size by one or two units depending on how confident you feel about the wager.

You can also reduce the bet size to half a unit if you aren’t confident enough. The entire system leans on whether you’re comfortable with shifting your unit size to help you win.

This model is more expensive than the flat and percentage models. You might be confident that your next bet has a chance of winning so you decide to bet 4.0 units. Regardless of your confidence, there is the risk of losing 4 units which would be a big hit to your bankroll.

So make sure being confident isn’t just your gut. New sports bettors need to be learning and developing several strategies to ensure proper money management.

Kelly criterion model In the Kelly criterion model, you determine the winning percentage for each wager. This depends on your confidence level; are you 50-50, 60-40, 30-70, etc, about winning the bet? You then use the following formula to help determine what percentage of your bankroll you need to wager for a certain bet:

(Decimal odds of your wager * win probability – loss probability) / decimal odds of your wager = suggested wager percentage

Let’s say you’re 40% confident about winning a bet placed on an underdog with +200. The Kelly criterion formula will look like this:

(2.00 * .40 – .60) / 2.00 = 0.10

This means that you should wager 10% of your bankroll, which is a lot, even for a risk-averse person. Therefore, this model is typically used by professional sports bettors. It would not be a good bankroll management strategy for a novice bettor who doesn’t have much experience in betting analysis.

FULL STORY

RBROWNBETS: We were a bit lucky Monday, when we cashed a Red Sox ticket (-143) even though starting pitcher Sonny Gray left the game in the third inning with a hamstring issue that landed him on the IL. We're back on the Red Sox (-108) today based on an edge in the pitching matchup: Connelly Early (Boston) vs. Luis Gil (NY). Early hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his four starts this season.

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